So, where did this come from?
My take on it is , that we do this all the time. We predict / forcast an outcome from past evidence. Simple.
I should be writing the for dummies books now :)
As HR professionals, as recruiters, that is what we do, without perhaps fully realizing it. Ever notice, that if a candidate from a particular university was recently fired for being unethical or simple not performing then the next candidate from the same university, prety much gets the boot. Its unfair, I may say. However, the recency effect too, but still. We do it becasue at the back of our mind, a logical model is developing, ringing a bell, telling us , alarming us that this candidate...or more so, this univeristy will because, it did in the past...
So guys, be very careful when evaluating people. GO deep..probe...you may very well loose a very promising new employee because of the wrong assumptions in the model that you create.